Time For Democratization?

A quite candid article in Time today, insinuating the Israeli government has a vested interest in the maintenance of dictatorial rule under President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt.

With a deep investment in the status quo, Israel is watching what a senior official calls "an earthquake in the Middle East" with growing concern. The official says the Jewish state has faith in the security apparatus of its most formidable Arab neighbor, Egypt, to suppress the street demonstrations that threaten the dictatorial rule of President Hosni Mubarak. The harder question is what comes next.

"We believe that Egypt is going to overcome the current wave of demonstrations, but we have to look to the future," says the minister in the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel enjoys diplomatic relations and security cooperation with both Egypt and Jordan, the only neighboring states that have signed treaties with the Jewish state. But while it may be more efficient to deal in with a strongman in Cairo — Mubarak has ruled for 30 years — and a king in Amman, democracies make better neighbors, "because democracies do not initiate wars," he says.

Having said that, I'm not sure the time is right for the Arab region to go through the democratic process."

The last quote is from a minister who spoke on condition of not being identified by name or portfolio. To the unnamed minister we should ask, “When would be the right time for the Arab region to go through the democratic process?”

As noted, while there is some truth in the idea that there is less chance a democracy would initiate war in comparison to a dictatorship, the arrogance portrayed in this article is evidence that the Israeli government is far more fearful of having to make peace, than fighting another war. Should a real democratization movement take hold in the Middle East, the international pressure on Israel to negotiate with “un-dictatorships” would be intense.

As of course would be the pressure on any fledgling Arab democracies. Because after all, as the unnamed Israeli government official says, if “democracies do not initiate wars,” then surely they seek peace.  Or at least, don't block it.

Time for both sides to envision the possibility of a very different future.  And begin to act like that future is already here.