Special Election in NY-26

Big Siena poll out this morning on Tuesday's special election in NY-26.  From Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo:

The special election for New York's 26th district is this Tuesday. And the latest poll has Democrat Kathy Hochul taking a lead over Republican Jane Corwin by 4 points among likely voters.

Hochul 42%, Corwin 38%, Davis 9%, Murphy 1%.

Key point. Hochul has jumped 11 points since the last poll, pretty much all from Davis. So the Tea Party candidate is faltering and his support is swinging overwhelmingly to Hochul.

It's a complicated election.  A referendum on Medicare, of sorts.



But also an election where the Tea Party candidate is pulling voters away, presumably from the Republican.  For some reason, Jane Corwin let last year's very, very, very failed Republican candidate (and Tea Partier) for NY Governor, Carl Paladino, speak on her behalf this week.  He only garnered 34% of the vote last November against Andrew Cuomo.  Watch the clip -- it's says a lot, and not just about what's going on in economically devastated Western New York.



If Jack Davis really falters on Election Day, and Hochul still wins, I will be proud of NY-26.  I wear my affection for Western New York on my sleeve, having lived in the neighboring district in Buffalo for some years.  It is only recently that my denial has let me come to accept just how Republican NY-26 really is.

We'll be following the live-blogging on Tuesday night.  And probably eating Buffalo chicken wings.  And drinking Genessee beer, if we can find it.  And hopefully, rejoicing in the good people of NY-26 coming to their senses, and stopping the nonsense of continually voting against their own best interest.

Why NY-26 Matters

For a few years in the mid 2000’s, I lived a stone’s throw from the NY-26 Congressional border. The Buffalo, New York suburbs. I never understood the Republican voting history of the district. Head-scratching, really. I even doubted just how Republican the district really was.

Rachel Maddow convinced me last night that indeed, NY-26 is an unquestionably Republican district. Listen. Watch.  An important story, about an interesting all-American place.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Here’s to hoping the good citizens of NY-26 finally stop voting against their best interests.

Wild and Wacky NY-26

Well, that was quick.

WASHINGTON -- The promising political career of Rep. Chris Lee collapsed Wednesday after an Internet tabloid published a shirtless picture of him that the married congressman had sent to a Maryland woman on Craigslist.

In one of the fastest and most bizarre start-to-finish scandals in recent Washington history, the Amherst Republican submitted his resignation to House Speaker John A. Boehner, R-Ohio, a mere three hours after the website Gawker ran the suggestive picture and a series of e-mails between Lee and the 34-year-old single woman.

Gory details, too. He claimed to be divorced. And lied about his age. And said he was a lobbyist – which I guess is a good thing to be if you are answering a singles ad in the Washington D.C.-area. But, he did use his real name, so he's not a total liar.

I lived right next door to NY-26, a suburban Buffalo district for a few years. Just a few blocks away from the border.  Nice place. Nice folks. Republican-leaning, but not hugely conservative. But, one of those economically decimated places that continually votes against their best interests.

New York State will lose two seats, though, in the 2012 congressional reapportionment, and the 26th District seat -- with a back-bencher representing it rather than the well-liked Lee -- could be an easy target for elimination.

It's a district with a rich history. The late Jack F. Kemp of Hamburg used his congressional seat as a launching pad to becoming a national conservative icon.

And Reps. Bill Paxon of Amherst and Thomas M. Reynolds of Clarence both represented the district and became part of the House leadership.

Lee succeeded Reynolds, who retired in 2008. A largely unknown business executive at the time, Lee fought a tough campaign against Democrat Alice J. Kryzan and quickly made a mark in Congress.

In 2008, I really thought a Democrat would make it. Tom Reynolds decided to retire, in the shadows of the Mark Foley scandal – the Florida Republican Congressman who resigned from Congress over allegations he sent sexually suggestive e-mails and instant messages to teenaged boys who had formerly served as congressional pages. Reynolds, chairman of the National Republican Committee at the time, knew of the accusations and was criticized for not doing enough about it.

Well, the district voted Republican again, and this is what they got.

Will they vote against their best interests again, in 2011?

The Old Neighborhood

Let's Go Buffalo!

Good news from one of my former hometowns.

University Park, a slice of the city's University Heights neighborhood, was nominated for the National Register Historic District in November as part of a University at Buffalo class project.

Supporters are hopeful the national status will be granted in the spring, after the application is reviewed by the National Park Service.

"To be listed on the National Register is an honor," said Kerry Traynor, a clinical associate professor of architecture and urban and regional planning at UB.

And heaven knows, Buffalo, New York could use all the good news it can get.