NY-26: Pundit Round-Up

So. Was last night’s Democratic victory in solidly Republican NY-26 all about Medicare, or the Tea Party? Or somewhere in between?

A sampling.

John Nichols at The Nation:  Despite the fact that Kathy Hochul started out a terrific candidate, her campaign was going nowhere until Paul Ryan and Medicare vouchers came into the picture.

David Weigel at Slate: The Republicans were a total mess, starting with the demise and resignation of the sitting Republican Congressman, and continuing into their choice of candidate and the continued presence of self-professed Tea Partier, Jack Davis.

Chuck Todd and The First Read folks over at MSNBC strike a balance:

2012 won’t be just like 2010: Of course, it’s important not to make too much out of a single special election; after all, Democrats won a majority of last cycle’s special elections, but got crushed in the midterms. And, of course, Davis’ third-party candidacy played a role (Dems wouldn’t have played in the race without him). But you also can’t dismiss last night’s outcome. Hochul’s 47% in this essentially three-way race outperformed Obama’s 46% in this district in 2008. The GOP outside group American Crossroads acknowledged this reality of the NY-26 race: “What is clear is that this election is a wake-up call for anyone who thinks that 2012 will be just like 2010. It’s going to be a tougher environment, Democrats will be more competitive, and we need to play at the top of our game to win big next year.”

John McCormack at The Weekly Standard agrees that while it’s always good to win a seat in the House, there is a much-ado-about-nothing sense going on here:

So, for all the attempts by Democrats and many news reporters to spin this race as a referendum on Medicare reform, Republican scandal and division in this race make NY-26 a poor test case. I think Charlie Cook's analysis from last week still holds true: "[I]mplying that the outcome of this race portends anything about any conventional race next year amounts to cheap spin and drive-by 'analysis' of the most superficial kind, which is sadly becoming all too prevalent in Washington. There are a lot of folks in D.C. who would be well-served switching to decaf."

And finally, Chris Cillizza and friends at The Washington Post:  A reminder that Independents continue to be extremely dissatisfied with politics as usual, and wonders if Democrats will re-take the house in another wave election.

For my part, in thinking about whether Kathy Hochul can hold on to the district, I think it’s extremely important that Jack Davis was kept to single digits.  The race to keep the seat in 2012, starts today.  That is, if the district continues to exist, when New York state loses two seats to redistricting.

Empowering Grandmas in NY-26

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) went on Fox News Sunday this weekend, interviewed by Chris Wallace. Some of his views on Medicare. The transcript is here.  The emphasis is mine.

WALLACE: Well, I wouldn't say it's subtle. But, question -- what do you think of the Ryan plan on Medicare?

MCCONNELL: Well, what Paul has done here is implement a premium support proposal at the end of the period, which is a very sensible way to go to try to save Medicare...  So, let's just stipulate that nobody is trying to throw grandma off the cliff. Medicare is in serious trouble, serious trouble, and soon. The president would ration care, which will adversely impact grandma.

What Paul Ryan would do is to empower grandma in the private market, to shop and get the best possible deal. But regardless of which approach you take, Medicare is going to change or it won't be there for anyone.

Because after all, EVERY grandma I know can't wait to get into the private market to get the best deal on health insurance.  No, your average grandma doesn't have enough to worry about in her every day life.  And there is never enough empowerment in America, anyway.

Today is the special election in NY-26, a heavily Republican district that may go Democratic tonight.

This district actually voted for Republican (and Tea Partier) Carl Paladino in last November's governor's race, when Andrew Cuomo beat him with 62% of the vote statewide.  It's close, close, close.  Some think it may come down Medicare. From today's Buffalo News:

The campaign for the special election in the 26th Congressional District ended Monday much as it began -- mired in squabbling over the future of Medicare.

And with the debate about Medicare continuing to affect the tight three-way race, one-time Republican front-runner Jane L. Corwin acknowledged that she would have addressed the issue earlier and differently if she had it to do over again.

"I probably would have addressed the Medicare message -- coming out at my opponents -- quicker," Corwin said in response to a reporter's question at the Amherst Senior Center.

"I have to admit that when she started making these comments, I thought these are so outrageous that probably no one would ever believe it," she said, referring to Democratic opponent Kathleen C. Hochul.

"Apparently some people did."

So, we are left to see today how many grandmas in NY-26 will vote to empower themselves in the private market and shop for the best possible deal they can get on health insurance.  The country is awaiting the outcome.

Special Election in NY-26

Big Siena poll out this morning on Tuesday's special election in NY-26.  From Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo:

The special election for New York's 26th district is this Tuesday. And the latest poll has Democrat Kathy Hochul taking a lead over Republican Jane Corwin by 4 points among likely voters.

Hochul 42%, Corwin 38%, Davis 9%, Murphy 1%.

Key point. Hochul has jumped 11 points since the last poll, pretty much all from Davis. So the Tea Party candidate is faltering and his support is swinging overwhelmingly to Hochul.

It's a complicated election.  A referendum on Medicare, of sorts.



But also an election where the Tea Party candidate is pulling voters away, presumably from the Republican.  For some reason, Jane Corwin let last year's very, very, very failed Republican candidate (and Tea Partier) for NY Governor, Carl Paladino, speak on her behalf this week.  He only garnered 34% of the vote last November against Andrew Cuomo.  Watch the clip -- it's says a lot, and not just about what's going on in economically devastated Western New York.



If Jack Davis really falters on Election Day, and Hochul still wins, I will be proud of NY-26.  I wear my affection for Western New York on my sleeve, having lived in the neighboring district in Buffalo for some years.  It is only recently that my denial has let me come to accept just how Republican NY-26 really is.

We'll be following the live-blogging on Tuesday night.  And probably eating Buffalo chicken wings.  And drinking Genessee beer, if we can find it.  And hopefully, rejoicing in the good people of NY-26 coming to their senses, and stopping the nonsense of continually voting against their own best interest.