NY-26: Pundit Round-Up

So. Was last night’s Democratic victory in solidly Republican NY-26 all about Medicare, or the Tea Party? Or somewhere in between?

A sampling.

John Nichols at The Nation:  Despite the fact that Kathy Hochul started out a terrific candidate, her campaign was going nowhere until Paul Ryan and Medicare vouchers came into the picture.

David Weigel at Slate: The Republicans were a total mess, starting with the demise and resignation of the sitting Republican Congressman, and continuing into their choice of candidate and the continued presence of self-professed Tea Partier, Jack Davis.

Chuck Todd and The First Read folks over at MSNBC strike a balance:

2012 won’t be just like 2010: Of course, it’s important not to make too much out of a single special election; after all, Democrats won a majority of last cycle’s special elections, but got crushed in the midterms. And, of course, Davis’ third-party candidacy played a role (Dems wouldn’t have played in the race without him). But you also can’t dismiss last night’s outcome. Hochul’s 47% in this essentially three-way race outperformed Obama’s 46% in this district in 2008. The GOP outside group American Crossroads acknowledged this reality of the NY-26 race: “What is clear is that this election is a wake-up call for anyone who thinks that 2012 will be just like 2010. It’s going to be a tougher environment, Democrats will be more competitive, and we need to play at the top of our game to win big next year.”

John McCormack at The Weekly Standard agrees that while it’s always good to win a seat in the House, there is a much-ado-about-nothing sense going on here:

So, for all the attempts by Democrats and many news reporters to spin this race as a referendum on Medicare reform, Republican scandal and division in this race make NY-26 a poor test case. I think Charlie Cook's analysis from last week still holds true: "[I]mplying that the outcome of this race portends anything about any conventional race next year amounts to cheap spin and drive-by 'analysis' of the most superficial kind, which is sadly becoming all too prevalent in Washington. There are a lot of folks in D.C. who would be well-served switching to decaf."

And finally, Chris Cillizza and friends at The Washington Post:  A reminder that Independents continue to be extremely dissatisfied with politics as usual, and wonders if Democrats will re-take the house in another wave election.

For my part, in thinking about whether Kathy Hochul can hold on to the district, I think it’s extremely important that Jack Davis was kept to single digits.  The race to keep the seat in 2012, starts today.  That is, if the district continues to exist, when New York state loses two seats to redistricting.